Antigen testing—which is much faster than most PCR testing but less reliable—will make the national positivity number harder to track, and there’s a risk that many antigen tests won’t get reported. Hospitalization data is concerning, though in the crazy world of US health economics supply creates demand. I’ve shared some bad news so far. The South Central region is at 17%! At Resolve to Save Lives, we released a toolkit this week sharing evidence, tools, and best practices for policymakers and communities to promote mask-wearing, which I summarized in the Washington Post. October 23, 2020. Vermont is 6 times more densely populated than South Dakota, but has 16 times fewer cases and 10 times fewer deaths. Bottom line (almost) up front: there IS one thing that can stop Covid. (Why are bats the cause of so many bad pathogens for people? 2. This blog was originally posted on Time.com on November 20, 2014 This Thanksgiving Day, 170 CDC disease detectives, public health experts, and communication specialists will not be home celebrating with loved ones. 100,000+ deaths could quite possibly, simply, and cheaply have been prevented. The reported rates are slightly higher in North Dakota (1,000 vs. 800 per million a day), but when corrected for test intensity, South Dakota has about 4x the rate of North Dakota and 20x the rate of the Northeast. There’s strong evidence that paid sick leave reduces the risk that people will work while infectious from the flu, and that is almost certainly the same with Covid. We don’t know if some people who get vaccinated will develop harmful immune over-reaction. The bruise is spreading. Many measures we’re seeing now – floor markings to denote safe distancing, requirements to use hand sanitizer before entering a building, capacity restrictions in restaurants and stores – may be with us for some time. No place is immune to Covid. The Upper Midwest is in the exponential increase phase. That’s a 10-fold difference. A vaccine that is safe and effective may become available by early 2021. We have seen the limitations that caps and sequestrations cause for discretionary funding. Masks work. It’s important to track both the proportion and numbers of ILI/CLI. The inadequate protection of essential workers, many of whom are Black/Latinx, has also magnified inequities. I’ve been calling it a “comprehensive approach,” but does anyone have a better term? Knocking down spread is the first punch, boxing the virus in when new infections emerge is the second punch. Deaths and hospitalizations continue to decrease overall. These deaths also reflect approximately a quarter of a million infections per day a month ago (so we’ve only been detecting about 1 in 5 infections). Most of the US is still failing to contain Covid. The reality is the pandemic won’t end anytime soon. We need to be particularly careful about vaccine safety. The data on convalescent plasma is contradictory. It is inevitable that there will be future outbreaks. An interesting new analysis found that there was “roughly 1 prevented COVID-19 case per day per 1300 workers who newly gained the option to take up to two weeks of paid sick leave.” This is so important, and would have so many benefits. Testing positive for antibodies does NOT mean you’re immune. What starts in the young doesn’t stay in the young. This is an informative, though depressing graphic from The Covid Tracking Project. Arizona has stabilized at a high rate. On May 6th, I had the opportunity to testify in front of the House Appropriations subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic. In the US, hospitalizations and deaths are slowly trending downward, but that won’t last because cases are steady or increasing in most of the country. As predicted, what started in young adults didn’t stay in young adults. And VOTING. Be credible. Neither state has a mask mandate. Some are speaking about this outbreak as if it’s in the past tense. About this, we are 100% certain. I outlined how we can make progress using a one-two punch strategy with more nuanced closures and more effective testing and isolation. We ardently hope that deaths won’t increase as much as in the past, due to better care, fewer overwhelmed hospitals, and the use of dexamethasone and possibly other treatments. As an epidemiologist, I think a lot about numbers. Improving ventilation and spending more time outdoors also help. We don’t know how well they will work, how safe they will be, and for how long they will protect people. Measles commonly spreads through air that can stay contaminated for hours -- for example, people in an emergency department can get infected hours after a patient with measles has left. Covidview deaths are below the epidemic threshold, but how long will that last? Valid responses to this information include rage and action. This is a national tsunami. Frieden, T. Covid Epi Weekly. This modeling site has performed better than most, using solely deaths and machine learning. The percentage of positive tests continues to decrease, as do trends for the proportion of outpatient visits for ILI and CLI (influenza-like illness and COVID-like illness). Covid epidemiology weekly blog. But we need to vastly up our game in preventing household spread. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. ● Be transparent, consistent, predictable, and fair. We propose a new approach for specific public health programs that are critical to prevent, detect, and respond to health threats. Yes, really, 35%. That’s not a plan, that’s a catastrophe. Germany has had less than one-fifth the US death rate, Canada less than half, and South Korea 80 times less. Tom Frieden: What I’m Thankful For. He asked, Will this be forever? What should you do? Are cases isolating? Sheltering in place is a blunt but effective weapon: it suppresses spread of the virus but inflicts severe hardship on individuals and the economy. Many thanks to Covid Exit Strategy for their great work tracking the situation in each state. It’s crucial that there be a smooth handoff to the incoming Biden administration — this is going to be the most complicated vaccination program in the history of the United States. It’s outrageous that we STILL don’t have reliable information on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by week by race and ethnicity. We have to ensure it’s safe, effective, available, and trusted. First, the good news on COVID-10 epidemiology. Superspreader events – one individual or event resulting in many infections – are likely to occur or to have occurred, as they did with both SARS and MERS. We've never used this type of vaccine in people before. We’re waking up to the fact that we need to shut down. With a vaccine and treatment, even more progress will be possible. Establish additional sentinel sites in China to determine what proportion of people both with and without symptoms who attend health care facilities are infected. We must better prevent and treat this virus. Covid variants are here, and more are coming — but so are vaccines. And as distribution begins, it will need to be fast, fair, and transparent. On Saturday there were at least 200,000, possibly many more than that. Contacts quarantining? Important report from CDC. There’s only one enemy: a virus. Now, the disheartening numbers. These same studies suggest that antibodies, which have been a focus of research, may not be the only, or even the most important component of our immune response. Tom Frieden: What I’m Thankful For Posted on November 24, 2014 by CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden This blog was originally posted on Time.com on November 20, 2014 CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden There’s continued and very encouraging news on vaccines. 4) We will be able to begin to re-open as soon and safely as possible by basing decisions on data and creating a new normal. Are we doomed? We think of it like armor – if we’re immune, we’re protected. What we do not know is how to bring people back to life.”. We’re seeing decreases in Covid cases and test positivity rates in much of the country. In New York City, we’re continuing to see uncontrolled spread in religious communities and increasing risk elsewhere. Transmission depends on the index case, ventilation, whether people are wearing masks, what activities they’re doing (singing, shouting, etc. Testing doesn’t replace wearing a mask, watching your distance from other people, and washing your hands. Covid is here to stay. Recent laboratory studies suggest – but don’t prove – that immunity from infection with SARS may last many years. Overconfidence could lead individuals and communities to let their guard down, which could result in more spread and more death. Testing is only useful as part of a comprehensive strategy. In South and North Dakota, an estimated 1 in 11 people have Covid. The competition is open until September 29. Operation Warp Speed, the effort to deliver a Covid vaccine, has gotten some things right. I don’t think masking will be forever, but I do think there will be some changes in how we go about our lives for the foreseeable future. Germany just did a fascinating experiment. Nice review of all key data by WHO. How many episodes of nosocomial transmission have there been? Here’s a sad tale of 2 states. The more we work together, the more we can control Covid. They’re only against a virus, not a party or person. We cannot let the FDA and CDC become the next casualties of Covid. 1. The higher the peak, the longer it lasts. If there’s one major lesson from this particular failure, it’s that testing doesn’t replace safety measures—testing is only useful as part of a comprehensive strategy. Cases are trending up again in many states, and are likely to hit 50,000 a day in the US in October. The increases in hospitalizations required the Covid Exit Strategy team to add a new color. (We do know that the louder people shout or sing, the more they can spread the virus, though much less so if they’re wearing a mask.). 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